|mid 2015? (linear projection based on last 12m)
|mid 2016? (projection based on last 12m)
Unfortunately, the statistics from Moodle are far away of being accurate.
Just imagine about Moodle in Germany.
Nearly every school in Bavaria gets Moodle installed for free, and all the pupils are already imported in the system.
Means: dead users in a dead installation.
And the same goes for other districts in Germany.
Our politicians made big words about lifelong learning, and finally we ended with some senseless eLearning installations without support...
On the other hand, Chamilo lets the admin decide if the statistics are submitted or not.
I have installed (or helped to) about 50 intranets, which can't submit statistics :-)
So, these statistics might not be as reliable... ;-)
For the sake of the truth, since version 1.9.0, the sending of stats to the Chamilo Association is automatic, and the option on the admin panel is only to know if you want it to be public or not.
This has been published in the changelog of Chamilo 1.9.0 (as soon as it was developed, around two years ago):
<blockquote>System: The stats collection of Chamilo.org is now automatic. If you want to disable this feature, edit admin/index.php and look for fsockopen() (#5104)</blockquote>
Regarding the fact that all schools in Bavaria gets Moodle installed for free, this is also the case for Chamilo in the region of Aix-Marseilles, South of France (370 schools or something like that) with our support (as BeezNest), but there is some pedagogical support there, so they're not all empty spaces (I'm sure this is not the case for Moodle either, although the adoption rate tends to be lower in our experience).
It will also probably soon be the case for the region of Grenoble, and maybe also other regions around the world soon. It is also the case for our ancestor software in Spain, where all customers of the biggest telephony company can have it installed for free.
So I believe the argument is not really relevant here. It is just a matter of time and effort before this spreads to much larger numbers.
If we could pull these regions in the Chamilo adventure, with Moodle already in place, then we can definitely live up to the expectation of getting a much larger space in the e-learning universe in little time from now.
It's important to remember that registration of a Moodle site is completely optional, and likely the majority of sites choose not to register on https://moodle.org/sites/. Moodle continues to improve the process where registered sites are verified to ensure they're genuine and active, and this may explain the flatness of the grown curve in the last year. It's also not unreasonable to assume that given the heightened awareness about privacy in the last year many sites may have opted to not register or deregister their Moodle site.